The lights aren’t just getting dimmer, they’re disappearing.

Fluorescent lighting, once the backbone of commercial and industrial facilities, is entering a rapid and irreversible decline. Over the next decade, lamps and ballasts won’t cost more, they’ll vanish altogether, as regulatory bans and manufacturer exits accelerate a state-by-state phase-out toward complete market obsolescence.

Phase 1: Now (2025–2026) — The Ban Wave Is Here 

Fluorescent bans aren’t coming…they’re already in effect. Multiple states, including California, Colorado, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Oregon, and Rhode Island, implemented bans on linear fluorescent lamps starting January 1, 2025.  

Minnesota began phasing out fluorescents in 2025–2026, Illinois now follows in 2026, and Washington has a full ban scheduled for 2029. 

The takeaway: Over a dozen states, representing roughly 40–45% of U.S. commercial space, either have active bans or imminent ones. Facilities in these markets are already relying on a shrinking, non-replenishable supply of fluorescent lamps and ballasts. (Source: NuWatt Lighting) 

Phase 2: 2026–2028 — Supply Shrinks Everywhere 

You don’t have to be in a ban state for supply to disappear. 

As manufacturers stop producing for large markets like California and Colorado, overall production drops. What remains gets stretched across the rest of the country, driving up prices and extending lead times. 

We’ve seen this before with T12 lighting. Standard T12 lamps were phased out in 2012, and magnetic ballasts are no longer manufactured in the U.S. Facilities that waited were forced to source gray-market inventory at steep premiums or couldn’t get parts at all. T8 systems are now on the same path, just moving faster.  

At the same time, major manufacturers are exiting the market. Lutron discontinued dimmable fluorescent ballasts in 2024, and companies like Philips Advance, Acuity Brands, and GE Current are steadily winding down their fluorescent ballast lines. The pool of suppliers continues to shrink each year. (Source: Lighting Gallery)

The result: Even in states without bans, fluorescent lamps and ballasts will become harder to find and eventually unavailable.

Phase 3: 2028–2030 — Critical Shortages 

By 2028–2030, facilities still using fluorescent will face limited and costly options. 

Lamps: Remaining inventory will be scarce and expensive. Imports may help short-term, but quality issues, delays, and tariffs make them unreliable. As more states enforce bans, supply will tighten further.  

Ballasts: This is the bigger problem. Many systems installed between 2010–2015 will hit failure cycles just as supply disappears. While lamps may still be available at a premium, ballasts may not be available at all. (Source: TRC)

Phase 4: 2030–2035 — End of Fluorescent Availability  

By 2035, fluorescent lighting is no longer a maintainable technology in U.S. commercial and industrial facilities. 

T5 and T12 lamps are already gone or near zero. T8 lamps become extremely scarce before disappearing entirely. Ballasts follow the same path; first limited, then unavailable, with most manufacturers exiting the market well before 2030. 

The outcome: By the mid-2030s, maintaining fluorescent systems isn’t just expensive; it’s no longer possible. 

The T12 Case Study: We’ve Seen This Before 

The clearest preview of what’s coming is what has already happened with T12s. Once the phase-out began, production quickly declined. Today, magnetic ballasts are no longer manufactured in the U.S. (Source: Regency Supply). 

Facilities that waited paid the price, 3–5x costs for remaining inventory, followed by rushed, full-cost retrofits with no incentives and no time to plan. Those that acted early secured incentives, controlled timing, and maximized ROI. 

T8 is following the same path…just faster. 

The Compounding Cost of Waiting 

For facilities still running fluorescent, costs don’t rise gradually, they stack quickly: 

• 2025: Parts were available but were getting more expensive and harder to find. Incentives were still available but shrinking fast 

• 2026–2027: Shortages increase. Emergency orders cost 2–3x, and some fixtures go dark 

• 2028–2030: Supply gaps force unplanned retrofits, at full cost, with no incentives and higher labor demand 

• 2030+: Retrofits happen on the worst terms, or facilities operate with failing lighting 

The longer you wait, the fewer options you have. 

Moving early means better pricing, available incentives, and control over timing.

The Bottom Line

Fluorescent lighting over the next 10 years isn’t just about prices going up, it’s a slow phase-out happening across the U.S., with a clear end in sight. 

If you’re still using fluorescent, you have two choices: 

• Upgrade now: with incentives, better pricing, and a planned installation 

• Or upgrade later: without incentives, at higher prices, and likely in a rush 

The T12 phase-out showed that waiting costs more. And with electricians getting harder to find and more expensive, delaying only makes it worse. 

Don’t Wait Until Your Lights Go Out 

Fluorescent lighting isn’t just becoming inefficient; it’s becoming impossible to maintain. The facilities that act early will control costs, secure incentives, and avoid disruption. The ones that wait will be forced into reactive, high-cost decisions. 

PEC helps commercial and industrial facilities stay ahead of this transition with strategic lighting audits that identify risks, quantify savings, and map out a clear upgrade plan. 

Schedule a lighting audit with PEC today and take control of your timeline, your budget, and your energy performance before the phase-out takes those options off the table.